Here’s why:

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Has Brian Caulfield of Forbes totally lost it? In a piece entitled, “Why Apple could kill the Nintendo DS”, Caulfield contends that Apple’s new App store for the
iPhone and
iPod touch could be the first step in replacing Nintendo in the handheld gaming space.

Sadly, Caulfield makes, well, no sense. Regardless of how hard he tries, he can’t run from the overwhelming discrepancy between the DS sales figures and those of the iPhone and iPod touch. And although he has faith in Apple’s upcoming App Store, does he really trust it that much?

But maybe I should give Caulfield the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps his title about “killing” the Nintendo DS was a little too strong and it’s not about the numbers. Of course, I’m not quite sure how he can run from the sales figures so easily, but that’s another story altogether.

Maybe, just maybe, Caulfield meant that the iPhone and iPod Touch would kill the Nintendo DS by selling more games in the App store. If he believes that, he’s probably even further off than even I want to admit.

Is that so hard to accept, Mr. Caulfield?

And perhaps that’s where Caulfield’s logic really falls off the tracks. Apple will most likely try to make some inroads in the handheld gaming business, but the sheer number of DS units already in the wild is enough to ensure that the iPhone and iPod touch will never come close.

And if he knew anything about the handheld gaming market, he would probably know that Nintendo’s past is littered with the remains of companies that have tried to supplant it as the leader in the market and failed — miserably.

And although I haven’t mentioned it due to the overwhelming evidence that can be found elsewhere, what about the 800-pound gorilla in the room? You know, that whole issue with Apple not understanding (or even caring) about gaming at all. How does Caulfield account for that?

Feast your eyes on the winner

Let’s face it — Apple is struggling to sell 10 million iPhones. How can it truly expect to supplant the Nintendo DS in the handheld gaming space if it’s still more than 60 million units behind?

I understand that some folks would like to believe that Apple can control every industry it may have some impact on, but I guess I’m not that naive. Suffice it to say that in some markets, Apple can’t (and won’t) be the leader.

Can anyone see any way for Apple to kill the DS by selling games through the App store? If the sales figures (oops, there they are again) aren’t nearly as high as the DS, which has about a 4.7 game attach rate, can we really expect Apple to beat it?

Assuming we’re going to judge the “killing” of one device in the handheld market by software sales, each iPod Touch and iPhone would need an attach rate that has never been achieved in the history of gaming: 34 games per device assuming there are 10 million iPhone and iPod Touch units in the wild.

Now that is doing something.

The DS is currently on pace to not only destroy the Game Boy sales record, but it has the opportunity to do so in about ten years assuming the same rate of sale can be maintained. Can Apple truly produce that many products and then convert those users into gamers? I seriously doubt it.

So far, Nintendo has sold just over 73 million Nintendo DSs. Compare that to the iPhone’s lofty goal of 10 million units sold and the iPod touch’s sales, which have yet to be released, and you can see how much work Apple has to do just to catch up. In fact, last quarter, Apple sold about 1.7 million iPhones and 10 million iPods, although the exact number of iPod touch sales were not given. Considering Nintendo’s April DS sales were 414,800, I just don’t see how Apple has a chance

But to suggest that Apple could conceivably command the market and wrest control from the one company that has controlled it for over 20 years, is both foolhardy and downright ludicrous.

We do? Ostensibly Caulfield is alluding to games that we saw at the iPhone SDK event earlier this year where Sega unveiled Super Monkey Ball for the iPhone and EA showed off Spore, but I don’t know where else he sees this “powerful combination.”

(Credit:
CNET Networks)

I certainly don’t.

But I really didn’t want to upgrade. See, DirecTV and TiVo don’t get along any more. DirecTV sells its own DVRs, and all the reports I read online said these non-TiVo models were pretty bad. I wanted to hang onto my HR10-250 as long as possible, hoping there’d be a new TiVo-branded DirecTV DVR before the old MPEG-2 channels were cut off.

DirecTV is in the middle of a long-planned upgrade to new satellite broadcast technology. The company has launched new satellites that use MPEG-4 video compression to carry an ever-increasing number of HDTV stations, both local and national.

I’ll explain what happened and provide a detailed review of the HR21-700 over the next few days.

I’ve been a DirecTV subscriber for many years. In fact, I signed up in 2000 because I wanted to take a look at the then-new RCA DTC100 HD receiver. I didn’t even have an HDTV, but I did have a high-quality 21″ CRT computer monitor that the DTC100 could drive. It wasn’t good for large audiences, but for one or two people at a time, it was a real eye-opener. Eventually I got a real HDTV and the Hughes HR10-250 TiVo DVR (digital video recorder) for DirecTV. That was a great combination, one of the best high-tech purchases I’ve ever made.

But eventually I forced myself to accept that wasn’t going to happen, so when DirecTV called again last month and offered to give me a new receiver to replace the DTC100, a new DVR to replace the HR10-250, and free installation of a new dish antenna, I gave in and scheduled the appointment.

Late last year, DirecTV started calling me, inviting me to upgrade my equipment so that I could start receiving the new MPEG-4 channels. The representatives explained that the MPEG-2 HD channels I was watching on the DTC100 and HR10-250 would be phased out, and I would need to get new receivers eventually anyway.

Rob Walker, the author of the just-released “Buying in,” is a marketing connoisseur, an expert in reading the cultural underpinnings of commerce. In his Consumed column for the New York Times Magazine, he examines how technology shapes consumer culture and vice versa. In tomorrow’s piece he elaborates on the history of headphones, and how their role evolved in modern society, from the first Bose set to the Sony Walkman to the
iPod earbuds.

(Credit: Sennheiser)

With the miniaturization of devices, the public exposure of personal space increased. I remember that when I was 14, I came home from school, had lunch, and didn’t wait a second to lie down on my bed, put my clunky Sennheiser headphones on, and listen to an album I had just bought. Thomas Dolby’s “Aliens Ate My Buick” or Prince’s “Sign of the Times.” I closed my eyes and forgot the world around me. It was a moment of total immersion and uncompromising intimacy, both with the artist and myself. I wasn’t ready to share the music with anyone else until I had fully experienced and vetted every single note through the immediacy of the headphone connection.

Rob Walker will read from his new book “Buying In” at the frog Design Mind speaker series in New York on June 11.

We’ve covered Whrrl, and several of its competitors, already on Webware, but with the Where 2.0 conference coming up next week, I thought it’d be interesting to dive into this product just a bit more, since it represents some very interesting trends that are central to the creation of location-aware apps.

Whrrl is a fascinating project. The idea is that it tracks where you go, through your mobile phone, and makes that information available to your social network if you allow it. It also uses the behavior of other Whrrl users in general, and your friends in particular, to generate recommendations on places to go, and things to do based on behavior–not data entry.

For example, if you frequent a particular restaurant, you don’t have to do anything; Whrrl will know it. But it will also know which of your friends go to the same joint and what other restaurants they hang out at. And then it will be able to recommend just those establishments to you.

It will also have the capability to show you where your friends are in real time. For an old guy like me, that’s pretty creepy. But I think a younger generation of Facebook users might find it a natural extension to social networking.

Here are the trends that Whrrl illustrates, that I think we will see echoed a lot at the Where 2.0 show:

Whrrl tracks your real-world behavor. Scary? Sure, but also useful.

(Credit:
Whrrl)

Collecting geodata has to be passive

There are interesting services that rely on users entering in their location, but that makes for a very different experience and, more importantly, a horribly incomplete data set.

If you want to get good data, you’ve got to do deals with the mobile carriers

Only a few handsets, like the BlackBerrys, allow developers access to raw GPS data. For almost all other phones–including the
iPhone with its upcoming SDK–getting geo data means going deep into the machinery, and you cannot do that without the carriers or manufacturers giving you access. Sad, but true.

People have social network fatigue

No matter how cool a new mobile social app is, requiring people to sign up their friends to make it work will throttle its growth. A better bet is to allow people to leverage their existing social networks, like Facebook, as a starting point. But even then, new mobile social apps require some sort of buy-in from social net users to work. Until the big social networks like Facebook and LinkedIn get their own geo apps (not add-ons, but actual integrated features), I predict that growth of the mobile social products will remain limited.

Privacy is everything

The geo app companies are going to have to do a crackerjack job of “stewarding” (as Whrrl CEO Jeff Holden says) the personal location data they collect. They’re also going to have to educate users on managing their geoprivacy. For an interesting take on this, see FireEagle. (See “You are here, sort of.”)

Geolocation means more than GPS

Relying on the global positioning system only gets you so far. For one thing, only a small (but growing) proportion of existing mobile devices are GPS-enabled. For another, GPS is not accurate enough to identify behavior. Whrrl, for example, uses raw data from GPS receivers (on the phones that have them), in addition to proprietary analysis that includes group analysis of other users’ signals and “dwell” time at certain coordinates, to determine not just where users are at a given moment but whether they are inside or outside a building.

Other geolocation technologies that matter are Wi-Fi location (see Skyhook Wireless, which Whrrl is partnering with), cell tower-reported location (which only provides a rough position centered around the tower), multiple cell tower triangulation (more accurate), RFID-reported data, HDTV signal-based geolocation, and of course user-reported location. Smart geo apps will be agnostic to the input method of geo data.

I’ll be scanning for interesting new geo apps at the Where 2.0 conference next week, and will be sure to report on the Launchpad event Monday night when several companies launch new initiatives.

The last Service Pack for Windows XP, SP2, was released in August 2004. The initial release took some users all night to download and install. The company pushed back the initial public release from June 2004 originally. Despite numerous glitches still present in the code, Windows XP SP2 was formally made public on August 20, 2004, and Microsoft had to work hard to convince users to upgrade.

Windows XP SP2 featured a new Security Center, an improved firewall, and other tweaks.

That’s not the case with SP3, which was delayed several years while Microsoft did work on Windows Vista.

Microsoft says the service pack includes functionality previously released as updates. Perhaps that’s why the download and installation for SP3 was effortless on our test system. XP SP3 took only 30 minutes to download, and 10 minutes to install.

Some updates relevant to the home user include:

Support for WPA2, the latest standards-based wireless security solution derived from the IEEE 802.11i standard.

Improvements to black-hole router detection (detecting routers that are silently discarding packets). Windows XP SP3 turns this protection on by default.

BITS 2.5, which is required by Microsoft System Center Configuration Manager 2007 and Windows Live OneCare.

Peer Name Resolution Protocol (PNRP), which allows Windows XP applications to communicate with Windows Vista programs that use PNRP.

Windows Installer 3.1, which contains new and enhanced functionality and addresses some issues that Microsoft found in Windows Installer 3.0.

Digital Identity Management Service (DIMS), which allows users who log on to any domain-joined computer to silently access all of their certificates and private keys for applications and services.

However, the balance of these improvements are not necessarily relevant to the home user. For example:

MMC 3.0, which is a framework that provides common navigation, menus, toolbars, and workflow across diverse tools.

MSXML6, which provides better reliability, security, and conformance with the XML 1.0 and XML Schema 1.0 W3C Recommendations as well as System.Xml 2.0.

IPsec filter creation and maintenance. XP SP3 reduces the number of filters that are required for a server and domain isolation deployment. Also, the Simple Policy Update removes the requirement for explicit network infrastructure permit filters and introduces enhanced fallback to clear behavior.

The Security Options control panel includes more descriptive text to explain settings and prevent incorrect settings configuration.

Network Access Protection (NAP), which is a policy enforcement platform built into Windows Vista, Windows Server 2008, and Windows XP SP3 to better protect network assets by enforcing compliance with system health requirements.

Starting April 29, all Windows XP SP2 users should upgrade to SP3, if only to get a complete set of Windows XP patches installed.

Vizio's VP322 plasma measures just 32 inches diagonal.

(Credit:
CNET)

Before the Vizio VP322 came along, we always said that plasma-screen HDTVs basically started at 42 inches and went up from there. One exception was Panasonic’s 37-inch size, which is still available in the form of models like the TH37PH10UK professional model, but now that Panasonic is into LCD at that size, it no longer markets a 37-inch plasma to consumers.

Vizio, one of the few budget companies that bothers with both plasma and LCD, has taken another tack in introducing the smallest plasma yet. The 32-inch VP322 is the same size as the company’s popular VO32L, an LCD model, and it has the same list price. But a few items on the spec sheet are different, including native resolution, contrast ratio, or course, response time. So do those specs translate to visible differences between the Vizio and other budget LCDs?

As usual, the full review tells a different story from the specs. The plasma’s higher contrast ratio didn’t translate into better black levels, and the difference in resolution was negligible. This plasma’s main weakness is color accuracy, which is only partly balanced by the advantage of superior picture uniformity. In the end we prefer some budget LCDs, but the Vizio plasma still might appeal to bargain hunters who want to go glass.

For the complete story check out the CNET review of the Vizio VP322.

Not every video is available. Both users must opt in to have the session shared post-date, and only then does it go into the public directory. What makes it an attractive proposition is that the videos are only 60 seconds long (or less), so you can watch two or three of them in rapid succession. Better yet, each video is linked up to the members’ profiles, so if someone catches your eye you can message them, or view some of their other social interactions.

User ratings have been employed to weed out the good from the bad using the same five-star system that’s found on YouTube. WooMe’s creators are also highlighting especially watch-worthy videos in a special featured section. If you find something you like you can share it with friends either through a direct link or with an embed, which is what I’ve done below.

I think you’ll agree that this has the makings of a really watch-worthy service, however, there are a few things that could make it better. For instance:

• Give me an annotation tool. I spent countless hours watching Blind Date back when it was on TV, and seeing little moving notes on the videos was wonderful. I can imagine that someone, somewhere can do as good a job as that production team, especially if they’re limited to just 60 seconds. Better yet, team up with Veeple to do it and make some cash.

• Make inter-network sharing more functional. I just found a video of someone who seems like a good match for my friend. Let me recommend it to him or her with a customized message.

• Let me filter the videos by age group and location. The current system is a good start for exploring, but not as much for meeting other people nearby.

See also WooMe competitor SpeedDate.com, which has made certain member dates public for the sake of promotion.

Microsoft lands at No. 59 in the rankings for 2007, down from No. 11 in 2004, according to the survey from CoreBrand released Wednesday.

Are Apple's ads hurting Microsoft's brand image?

(Credit:
Apple)

“The effect of Apple’s ‘Hi, I’m a Mac’ advertising campaign may have taken its toll on Microsoft,” CoreBrand CEO James Gregory said in a statement. “The launch of a series of new products, following a long, relatively dormant period, will be closely watched to see if it will have a positive impact on the Microsoft brand.”

Some other tech firms have also seen their brand on the move. Motorola has dropped to No. 94 from No. 83 in 2006, while Toshiba rose 10 notches over the prior year, to No. 71. And as for that Cupertino, Calif.-based troublemaker, I couldn’t find it on the list.

In fairness to the folks in Redmond, they have fared far better in other recent brand studies. They were No. 1 on a list of Britain’s top “superbrands” last year, and No.2 in an August BusinessWeek ranking of top global brands (trailing only Coca-Cola).

I don’t know how much stock I put into the study, or its thesis that Apple is to blame, but it is an interesting question. How has Apple’s rise affected Redmond’s overall image beyond just a few points of PC market share?

When Apple occupied a smaller niche, it could be argued that what happened on the Mac side of things was less relevant to how Microsoft is perceived. But now that Apple has a larger role, is it affecting how Microsoft as a company is seen?

Meanwhile, in the world of brands, there’s another study out Wednesday that says that people who look at advertising start to take on the qualities they associate with that brand. So, in that study, those who look at an Apple logo become more creative.

So I have a test for you, my loyal readers. Please stare at the Microsoft logo for the next hour, or five minutes, or whatever you can stand. Then draw something and send it in to me. (Let me know if it is something we can publish or just for my amusement.)

(Credit: SmartPlanet)

As a child, if I rode my bike after dark, I’d have to rely on my bike’s reflectors and, occasionally, a flashlight to keep me visible. However, today’s cyclists have gadgets like the Pedalite Anklelite to help keep them safe.

This Anklelite is a solar-powered floodlight. According to Pedalite, users can expect at least three hours of use from the light in strobe mode; however, it doesn’t say how often it will last when not being used as a strobe.

I think the real benefit from this, other than safety, is that you never have to buy or replace batteries. Just keep the Anklelite near your bike gear, and in the sun, and it’s ready to go when you are.

According to Pedalite, “The Anklelite’s robust design and versatility enables it to be also used as an arm light on the upper or lower arm–perfect for jogging, cycling or riding.” It can be used as a strobe or a solid light. Also, says the company, it’s weather- and impact-resistant, so it should survive the occasional fall or rain shower.

No word yet on when the product will be available from Pedalite North America, but it’s going on sale in the U.K. for ?10 (about $18) in December.

(Via SmartPlanet)

The financial advisers to Circuit City told company officials Wednesday that they think Blockbuster, which has offered $1 billion for the consumer electronics retailer, doesn’t have the proper financing to make good on its bid, according to a Reuters report.

In a statement, the company said, “Circuit City awaits a viable financing structure that is predictably executable by Blockbuster given its current constraints of size and capital structure before it would be appropriate to allow further due diligence.”

Blockbuster’s CEO said earlier this week that his company would proceed with its takeover effort only if conditions are right and that it is loath to go through with a hostile bid. Circuit City has essentially stonewalled Blockbuster since the initial bid was made in February, not allowing easy access to its books.

Also Wednesday, a Circuit City investor who owns 6.5 percent of the company’s stock sent a letter to Circuit City urging the company to open its books to its suitor and begin negotiations. The retailer responded quickly to Wattles Capital Management, issuing a statement reiterating its position that Blockbuster hasn’t answered its questions regarding how it plans to finance a deal.